Things That Should Have Happened By 2011

A lovely post examining predictions that were made about what the technology world should look like in 2011:

When I started to look at predictions for a living back in 2006, I remember how 2011 was this big banner year against which most forecasts were made. I guess partly it was because 2011 was at the end of a five-year horizon, and partly because it was conveniently removed into the next decade. Whatever the reason, I’ve been patiently waiting for this year to arrive to check back on some of the more feisty predictions made in the outset of the 2.0 boom. And now this time has come.

Some of the stuff below has worked out remarkably — surprisingly — well, such as the prediction from Hitachi about commercial availability of mind-machine interfaces (check!). Other stuff — not so much: podcast audience was expected to skyrocket from 11.3% in 2006 to 51.1% in 2010 (eMarketer #084888), but it didn’t, lingering instead at 12% by December 2010 (eMarketer #123668).


Above is Gartner’s Hype Cycle chart for 2006; you will love how tablet PCs sit at the bottom of the trough of disillusionment.

via Advertising Lab: Things That Should Have Happened By 2011.

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