I’m extremely interested in new methods of undertaking foresight projects, and communicating the output of such work.  I’m also intrigued by the power of prediction markets, so when an idea mixes these ideas together it captures my attention.

It’s no surprise that it came from the IBM Global Innovation Outlook team in partnership with Spigit. The markets are now closed but the results – and the method – is fascinating. Here’s the summary from the site:

Prediction markets are an increasingly popular way to gather collective intelligence for better decision-making and more accurate forecasting. Prediction markets have been widely covered in the media and have been created for topics ranging from Academy Award winners to U.S. Presidential Elections. Enterprises are now beginning to use them, recognizing the potential benefits of prediction markets for scenarios such as prioritizing ideas, forecasting sales, predicting demand, or assessing product deployment dates. When properly executed, prediction markets have proven to be more accurate than many traditional methods of polling, surveying, and equal to or better than expert forecasts which is why IBM is investigating Predictive Idea Markets – a potentially new way to use prediction markets techniques and approaches for gathering consensus on business ideas.

Using a stock-trading format, participants express the strength of their opinions by ‘investing’ tokens in top ideas they believe will succeed, receiving 100 tokens to invest in each market. “Investing” involves selecting a question and “buying” an idea or answer using tokens. “Buying an idea” can express belief that the idea has high potential to succeed. Participants need not invest in all markets but may focus on the ones they have an affinity towards or feel they have some level of knowledge or insight about.

Have a look at the Smarter Cities Predictive Ideas Market to get the full details.