Month / July 2012

by Roger Dennis

Risk mitigation vs risk adaption

Andrew Zolli, the organiser of the PopTech conference has just published a book about resilience.  Given I’m living in a city that was hit hard by a series of quakes last year the topic is very interesting to me.  It’s also interesting from the point of view of foresight, and outlines an approach that is a necessary response to a world increasingly characterised by complexity and volatility:

One of the things that we could see happening very clearly was–and this was the observation that led directly to the book–was that organizations of very different kinds were all converging to the same core observations,” he says. “That was that the sustainability framework, which was based on what you might call ‘risk mitigation,’ was coming to an end and that we were increasingly headed toward a world of ‘risk adaptation.’

via Resilience: Lessons On How To Bounce Back From Disaster | Co.Exist: World changing ideas and innovation.

by Roger Dennis

Resources for ANZSOG Masterclass attendees

This post is intended for those that attended the Australia and NZ School of Govt Masterclass I held in Wellington on July 24th.

It’s a list of resources that may be of use when thinking about different ways to think about the future, and how to tell your story.  Firstly, here’s a list of organisations that think about the future, and share that thinking:

  • Shell energy scenarios can be accessed here.
  • The Institute for the Future in California publishes a wide range of information, including it’s Maps of the Decade.
  • The team from the Ministry of Trade and Industry in the Singapore Government do some outstanding work and they blog here.
  • The Sustainable Future Institute has a robust and fascinating series of publications that address the future of NZ, and you can access them via the website here.
  • the entire output of Future Agenda (including the book) can be accessed here.

With regards to telling rich stories that resonate, here’s a list of the links I referenced in my presentation:

 

 

by Roger Dennis

TED needs competition?

I like TED, and the talks that it spreads freely.  Friends have spoken at the conference, and come away waxing lyrical about the off-stage interactions, the meeting of minds and the thinking that results.  However I can’t help thinking that there’s something beyond TED that’s not focussed on North America and Europe, and not stuck in the old-style broadcast paradigm.  Some of this is encapsulated in a post I was referred to (thanks Twitter):

Can a new wave of technology thinkers produce a fresh outlet for smart ideas not (yet) co-opted as badly as TED? If so, it won’t come from the well-financed centers of Silicon Valley but from the margins, the actual cutting edge.

via Against TED – The New Inquiry.

by Roger Dennis

The Return of Asia

A quick link to something that has been discernible for a a while, and something that was clearly identified when we ran Future Agenda two years ago.  However now the clever (and time rich) analysts at McKinsey has quantified it:

A thousand years ago, the economic centre of the world was in central Asia, just north of India and west of China, reflecting the high levels of wealth enjoyed in the Middle and Far East at that time, says the report, Urban world: Cities and the rise of the consuming class. At that time, Asia accounted for two-thirds of the world’s wealth.

By 1900, the centre had shifted to northern Europe, which had leapt far ahead of the rest of the world thanks to the Industrial Revolution. And by 1950, the centre had shifted to the North Atlantic, reflecting the economic rise of the United States.

But now that trend is reversing itself, and at a stunning speed. What took 1,000 years to travel west will have travelled all the way back east in a matter of a few decades.

According to the McKinsey report, the economic centre of gravity has been shifting east for the past decade at a rate of 140 km (87 miles) per year, and by 2025, it will have returned to a spot in central Asia just north of where it was in 1,000 A.D.

“It is not hyperbole to say we are observing the most significant shift in the earth’s economic centre of gravity in history,”

via World’s Economic Centre Of Gravity Shifting Back To Asia At Unbelievable Speed: McKinsey Institute.

by Roger Dennis

McKinsey Quarterly – developing strategy en masse

Over at McKinsey there is a fascinating article about engaging an entire workforce in the development of organisational strategy:

…executives at organizations that are experimenting with more participatory modes of strategy development cite two major benefits. One is improving the quality of strategy by pulling in diverse and detailed frontline perspectives that are typically overlooked but can make the resulting plans more insightful and actionable. The second is building enthusiasm and alignment behind a company’s strategic direction—a critical component of long-term organizational health, effective execution, and strong financial performance that is all too rare, according to research we and our colleagues in McKinsey’s organization practice have conducted.

This is similar to some very successful work I’ve done with one client over the last five years. Initially we involved eighty thought leaders and influencers (along with a handful of hierarchical leaders) in a process to develop a vision.  Later in the process we spread that out to thousands of people using word of mouth.  It was extremely powerful, but you need to take great care to ensure the process does not go astray, and the McKinsey article touches on this.

via The social side of strategy – McKinsey Quarterly – Strategy – Strategy in Practice.

by Roger Dennis

Radio Interview on Cashless Societies (ABC Australia Future Tense)

Over the weekend ABC Australia played a programme about the rise (or otherwise) of cashless society.  It contained an interview with me about my experience of technologies, and specifically about my experience at egg (the UK branchless bank) in the early 2000s.  Here’s the blurb (and a link at the bottom)

We hear a lot about the cashless society and the death of the local bank branch—as commerce becomes increasingly digital. But how close are we to a completely cashless environment? Is it still possible to live a whole year without those little pieces of paper or polymer we carry in our pockets? We look at the rate of change when it comes to money’s digital future and whether all of us are heading for a cashless future at the same speed.

via Money, banks and our changing times – Future Tense – ABC Radio National Australian Broadcasting Corporation.