Posts by Roger Dennis

Innovation without the jargon to give clear tangible results.

Off-topic : Apple Snow Leopard install problems (solution)

This is a completely off-topic post for regular readers, and for that I apologise.  However I have just solved a problem with my laptop which has taken hours, and for which there seems to be a lot of mis-information about online.  With that in mind, I though it was worth sharing.

If you do not have an Apple computer which you are trying to upgrade to the Snow Leopard operating system, stop reading now.  There – I’ve said it.  Stop wasting your time.

I’ve had all sorts of problems trying to get Snow Leopard to install, whether it’s clean or an upgrade.  I’ve has messages which talk about files failing to copy, and needing to clean the DVD.  The messages were very unhelpful (for example: “Install Failed: The installer could not copy the necessary support files”), and when you go online people talk about mad solutions like removing RAM.

Here’s what I did.  After the install failed for the fifth time (each effort taking an hour or so) I found that there was an install log.  I looked at the install log (available from the menu) and saw that the error was linked to a missing file called German.pkg (or something similar).

My guess was that this was a language pack, and on my next install attempt I chose the “customize” option from the install menu.  From here I could deselect the language packs, and run the install.  This time the installer did not look for the “missing” files, and hey presto, it worked.

I guess it’s not so good if you are German…

(key words for searching : snow leopard install DVD troubleshooting fail file install initialize clean disc OSX upgrade apple solution error troubleshoot)

Future Agenda – CNBC coverage

Over on CNBC, my colleague on Future Agenda – Tim Jones –  presents 20 insights about 2020.  One of the most interesting comments focuses on currency, but not the Euro or the US dollar:

The introduction of a broad‐basket ACU (Asian Currency Unit) as the third global reserve currency will provide the world with the opportunity to balance economic influence and trade more appropriately.

It’s an easy, quick read, and is recommended. Full piece is here

How do innovators think? (HBR)

Every so often I read an article that really hits home.  This is one of them.  In the post Professors Jeff Dyer of Brigham Young University and Hal Gregersen of Insead explain how the “Innovators’ DNA” works.  The summary of their findings is encapsulated in the post, but the start of the article nailed it for me:

 Interviewer: You conducted a six-year study surveying 3,000 creative executives and conducting an additional 500 individual interviews. During this study you found five “discovery skills” that distinguish them. What are these skills?

Dyer:

The first skill is what we call “associating.” It’s a cognitive skill that allows creative people to make connections across seemingly unrelated questions, problems, or ideas.

The second skill is questioning — an ability to ask “what if”, “why”, and “why not” questions that challenge the status quo and open up the bigger picture.

The third is the ability to closely observe details, particularly the details of people’s behavior.

Another skill is the ability to experiment — the people we studied are always trying on new experiences and exploring new worlds. And finally, they are really good at networking with smart people who have little in common with them, but from whom they can learn.

If you work with creative people or within good innovation teams, the above traits will ring true like a dart hitting the bulls-eye.

Apparently there is a follow-up article due in the Dec 09 issue of HBR. I’ll be watching for it with interest..

Future Agenda now live

In the second post subtitled “what has been keeping me busy,” Future Agenda is now live. This is a unique cross-discipline programme which is uniting the best minds from around the globe to address the greatest challenges of the next decade. In doing so, it is mapping out the major issues, identifying and debating potential solutions and suggesting the best ways forward.  We’ve used a website as a centre point for the programme,which in effect is creating a structured open-source approach to foresight.

I encourage you to visit the site and to add your comments.

iPhone App Store As An Innovation Engine

This post could also be called “what’s been keeping me busy lately.”  The answer to that is a whole myriad of fascinating projects for clients, and one of these today hit the headlines.

I’m working with the senior team at Jade Software in New Zealand, and assisting in both innovation and foresight (the latter for clients of Jade).

I proposed the iPhone App Store idea as a way of stimulating software developers to think differently about what they designed and how they designed it. In a nutshell here’s the concept:

  • any employee at Jade is encouraged to work with others to come up with an idea for an iPhone app. We think that the team that will win the competition will be cross-functional i.e. not just developers, but also people from sales, marketing, admin, etc.
  • Jade has provided both non-technical overviews of the Apple ecosystem, and technical sessions on programming for the iPhone
  • the company has also setup a series of Apple workstations and allowed people to spend company time on these developing their apps
  • the winner of the competition is the one with the most downloads by Christmas.  they not only receive the latest iPhone (and connection for two years), they also keep every cent they earn from people buying their app
  • teams need to think about how they market their app and use their social networks, media etc to spread the word.  In other words, they are bringing their own little business to life, but being bankrolled by the company they work for.

I was impressed at the way in which the  CEO and CIO at Jade both picked up the idea and ran with it, and the reaction from the wider team at Jade has been equally impressive (to the extent there’s had to been extra technical sessions added). Watch this space for updates…

Prediction Markets and Foresight

I’m extremely interested in new methods of undertaking foresight projects, and communicating the output of such work.  I’m also intrigued by the power of prediction markets, so when an idea mixes these ideas together it captures my attention.

It’s no surprise that it came from the IBM Global Innovation Outlook team in partnership with Spigit. The markets are now closed but the results – and the method – is fascinating. Here’s the summary from the site:

Prediction markets are an increasingly popular way to gather collective intelligence for better decision-making and more accurate forecasting. Prediction markets have been widely covered in the media and have been created for topics ranging from Academy Award winners to U.S. Presidential Elections. Enterprises are now beginning to use them, recognizing the potential benefits of prediction markets for scenarios such as prioritizing ideas, forecasting sales, predicting demand, or assessing product deployment dates. When properly executed, prediction markets have proven to be more accurate than many traditional methods of polling, surveying, and equal to or better than expert forecasts which is why IBM is investigating Predictive Idea Markets – a potentially new way to use prediction markets techniques and approaches for gathering consensus on business ideas.

Using a stock-trading format, participants express the strength of their opinions by ‘investing’ tokens in top ideas they believe will succeed, receiving 100 tokens to invest in each market. “Investing” involves selecting a question and “buying” an idea or answer using tokens. “Buying an idea” can express belief that the idea has high potential to succeed. Participants need not invest in all markets but may focus on the ones they have an affinity towards or feel they have some level of knowledge or insight about.

Have a look at the Smarter Cities Predictive Ideas Market to get the full details.

Unevenly distributed futures (cont’d)

A quick pointer to an article on The Guardian that takes an in-depth look at drugs that enhance cognitive performance:

In 2004 he coined the term “cosmetic neurology” to describe the practice of using drugs developed for recognised medical conditions to strengthen ordinary cognition. Chatterjee worries about cosmetic neurology, but he thinks that it will eventually become as acceptable as cosmetic surgery; in fact with neuroenhancement it’s harder to argue that it’s frivolous. As he notes in a 2007 paper: “Many sectors of society have winner-take-all conditions in which small advantages produce disproportionate rewards.” At school and at work, the usefulness of being “smarter”, needing less sleep and learning more quickly is “abundantly clear”. In the near future, he predicts, some neurologists will refashion themselves as “quality-of-life consultants” whose role will be “to provide information while abrogating final responsibility for these decisions to patients”. The demand is certainly there: from an ageing population that won’t put up with memory loss; from overwrought parents bent on giving their children every possible edge; from anxious employees in an efficiency-obsessed, BlackBerry-equipped office culture where work never really ends.

The most appropriately named ship in the world

I was intrigued to read on the BBC today that a Western shipping company has successfully delivered cargo via the once impassable North East Passage. The significance of cannot be understated for it’s impact on world trade:

…the once impenetrable ice that prevented ships travelling along the northern Russian coast has been retreating rapidly because of global warming in recent decades. The passage became passable without ice breakers in 2005. By avoiding the Suez canal, the trip from Asia to Europe is shortened by almost 5,000km (3,100 miles). The company behind the enterprise says it is saving about $300,000 per vessel by using the northern route.

One of the ships was named Beluga Foresight.

Computer makers listen to consumers

From the NY Times comes an interesting and illuminating piece that identifies a change in the way that computer manufacturers are starting to think.  You can sum it up in a couple of words – start with the end user.

Historically the computer industry has sold itself on technology and the speed increases that inevitably accompany it.  But – as the article points out – very few buyers really care about whether the hard drive spins at 4500rpm or 7200rpm.

The old tradition of flogging 220 different combinations of A.M.D. chips has been traded in and replaced with three categories of PCs: See, Share and Create systems (the designations roughly line up with “good,” better” and “best”). A.M.D.’s 40-page manual that explained its technical wizardry to salespeople has met its demise as well, replaced with a two-page pamphlet.

They’re also looking at adjacent sectors for inspiration:

Intel has dabbled with what it called “use-model marketing,” where computers were aimed at people who wanted to play games or those who wanted entertainment like movies over the gearhead speak of a fact tag. Intel poured money into its Viiv concept, which centered on using computers for entertainment, only to find that it confused consumers who also wanted to use the machines to do work. Intel has since turned elsewhere for answers.

“We have been looking at the automotive industry,” said Ms. Conrad. “Computers have become an emotional purchase like cars. We’re getting very emotional with our marketing and advertising.”

And, like carmakers that spend ages fine-tuning the sound of a slammed door, Dell has focused on the touch and sound of its computers.

The takeaway from this?

1. Understand you customers, and put yourself in their shoes

2. Most problems that you face in your business will have been encountered before by other industries. Look across sectors, rather than within your own, for solutions and inspiration.

The problem with suggestion boxes…

As a tool to facilitate and encourage employees to share their ideas about new business opportunities, suggestions boxes have the same effect as a shredder does on paper.

What’s more they don’t scale, they don’t manage expectations and they’re not robust.  About the best thing you can do to a suggestion box is to ask employees to suggest the most creative way to destroy the box itself.

So what do you once the suggestion box has been burnt/shredded/crushed and microwaved? Start researching prediction markets from companies like BrightIdea, and read posts like this from James Gardner